Can Chrysler hit jackpot again?

Carmaker desperate for next big thing

DETROIT NEWS - - W hen times get tough, Chrysler has always had a knack for producing a hit vehicle that washes away the red ink and safeguards the company, at least temporarily.

The audacious Chrysler 300 sedan was the last timely stroke of brilliance in Auburn Hills. It could whisk you to the Fisher Theatre while beating every chump off the line along Woodward. Over the years, the quirky PT Cruiser, classic Jeep Grand Cherokee and innovative new minivans saved Chrysler's bacon.

The question is: Does Chrysler have enough mojo left to pull off another product-led comeback? Stabilizing health care costs or cutting jobs alone won't save the automaker. As parent DaimlerChrysler AG shops it to potential buyers, Chrysler may never have needed to prove its worth more.

Last year, Chrysler introduced a record 10 vehicles. Other than the four-door Wrangler Unlimited, which serves a relatively small niche, there were no unqualified hits. Eight more new models are coming this year.

"We just have to be competitive," said Steve Bartoli, Chrysler's vice president for global product planning, adding that the coming crop of new vehicles will pay dividends quickly.

"It's been a mixed mesh of new vehicles," Bartoli said, listing recent launches. "There haven't been any disasters."

No disasters is nice but it isn't enough. Chrysler needs to create an emotional connection with buyers. The automaker still designs and produces polarizing vehicles. In fact, many of its newest models, such as the boxy, aggressive Dodge Nitro, offer a distinctive look and unique features for their respective segment. But none has been an out-of-the-park home run."You don't get 300s every year," said Jim Sanfilippo, an automotive marketing expert with Team Detroit, which handles advertising for several brands. "They're going to do OK. Chrysler has a lot of solid doubles and all of them four-cylinder engines, which is going to be important when gas prices start to climb again."

Will new minivans prevail?

Chrysler's most important vehicle launch in 2007 is in the segment it invented in 1983, the minivan. Since then, Chrysler has since sold 11 million family haulers.

"If Chrysler has a home run, it's their new minivan," said Erich Merkle, director of forecasting at IRN, an automotive consulting company in Grand Rapids.

The fifth-generation 2008 Chrysler Town and Country minivan and top-selling Dodge Caravan, which roll into dealerships this fall, should boost the company's lagging sales, Merkle said.

While Chrysler still owns 28 percent of the segment, Town and Country's sales dropped 12 percent last year and Caravan sales fell 6.9 percent, according to Autodata.

"The competition doesn't have the ability to build more minivans," Merkle said. "And Chrysler is introducing an excellent product."

Indeed. The new pair of minivans will tout more than 35 improvements including a six-speed transmission, more head room, dual DVD players and crisp, clean, roof-mounted ambient lighting. Both debuted at the Detroit auto show and both look refined and well-crafted.

The Swivel 'n Go seats, a pair of second-row captain's chairs that turn to face the rear row, may not create as much buzz as the cool Stow 'n Go seats caused in 2005, but Chrysler will offer a superior vehicle with exclusive innovations. It's a recipe to bring in new customers.

With Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. abandoning minivans, Chrysler has a chance to grab even more customers as it fights with Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp., who hold the No. 2 and No. 3 spots respectively.

Is luck on sedans' side?

Chrysler Group may not be as lucky in the midsize sedan segment with its two new introductions: The all-new Dodge Avenger, which replaces the Stratus sedan, and the redesigned Chrysler Sebring.

Both vehicles offer distinctive designs, and the economical advantage of being built on the same platform in Sterling Heights. The Avenger is aggressive and mean-looking. The Sebring has a face made for the rental car fleet.

Sales for the Sebring sedan, which hit showrooms in December, remain sluggish, something Bartoli attributes to an end-of-year launch.

If the Sebring sedan's short deck and snubbed nose make it an ugly duckling, the convertible version of the sedan, which comes out later this year, is the swan. Somehow, dropping the top and removing two doors makes those hood strakes look good. America's best selling convertible should remain at the top.

The Avenger is rolling into dealerships now and offers a muscular alternative to a segment filled with hot-selling bland vehicles. It resembles a small Charger and its strong styling, unique features and good gas mileage should attract new customers. Dodge, a brand that appeals to men more than women, now has a car on its hands that could pull more drivers looking for something sporty but still need the utility of a sedan.

Another moderate success for Chrysler has been the Dodge Caliber. An inexpensive compact, the Caliber continues Chrysler's tradition of offering a distinct alternative to the traditional competitors.

While the interior feels spartan, it comes with clever features, like a cooler in the glove box and detachable cabin light. Chrysler sold more than 90,000 units since its introduction last year. By comparison, Toyota sold 387,000 Corollas, Honda sold 316,000 Civics and Chevrolet sold 211,000 Cobalts. A 300-horsepower high performance SRT version of the Caliber will come out later this year.

Are 8 vehicles too much?

Introducing so many new vehicles is a heavy burden for any automaker and confusing for consumers.

"It's tough to introduce a new nameplate," said Jack Nerad, executive market analysis for Kelly Blue Book, adding the plethora of new vehicles introduced by all manufacturers leaves many consumers overwhelmed.

Merkle said that many of the introductions may not generate incremental sales, instead stealing Chrysler customers from other vehicles.

"When Jeep introduced the Commander (in 2005), it didn't create new business, it stole Cherokee customers," Merkle said. "There is a danger of that happening again."

Bartoli disagrees. Bringing out new vehicles refreshes a lineup that was beginning to get long in the fan belt.

"I think all of these introductions are keeping our momentum going," Bartoli said. "Our lineup was starting to get old, and that's never a good thing."

Another factor that may help Chrysler in the long run, Nerad said, is the consumer trend that brand loyalty has gone the way of the three-speed transmission.

"They are more fickle now than ever before," Nerad said. "Even if they are totally satisfied with a vehicle they bought, that doesn't mean they'll return to that brand. What will take them somewhere else is the design."

And design is one area Chrysler has proven again and again that it can excel.

Hits and misses

By the end of 2007, Chrysler Group will have launched 18 new or redesigned vehicles in two years.
Introduced in 2006
Chrysler Aspen: Miss: A well-built large SUV with horrible timing. Big SUVs will suffer if gas prices head north of $3.
Chrysler Sebring: Miss: The midsize Sebring has many strong attributes, such as good gas mileage and interesting technology features, but its ugly mug and hood strakes may push this sedan to daily rentals.
Jeep Compass: Miss: The only Jeep without a trail rating, the all-new inexpensive Compass feels underpowered and cheap. Its interior needs upgrading in order to stand up to the competition in the ultra-hot crossover segment.
Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT8: Hit: A limited edition high-performance Cherokee with a 6.1-liter Hemi V-8. Truly a bat out of Hades and a blast to drive.
Jeep Wrangler: Hit: The iconic Jeep offers more room and never sacrifices off-road abilities. But low volume will never save the carmaker.
Jeep Wrangler Unlimited: Hit: The four-door Wrangler offers Jeep enthusiasts a chance to bring their families along for the ride.
Jeep Patriot: Hit: A small SUV that feels like a winner. It performs well on and off road and has a low enough price to bring people to dealerships.
Dodge Caliber: Hit: The compact Caliber gives consumers a clear alternative to smaller models. Its low price will entice more buyers.
Dodge Nitro: Miss: While offering a distinctive design, the Nitro lacks the flair to take over the compact SUV segment.
Ram 3500 Chassis Cab: Hit: Powerful and well-built heavy duty truck for the commercial market.
Coming in 2007
Chrysler Town and Country / Dodge Caravan: Hit: Redesigned with a classic look, both minivans will continue to set the gold standard for family haulers.
Chrysler Sebring Convertible: Hit: The best-selling convertible in America, the Sebring drop top will continue its reign. While the hardtop sedan may be tough to look at, the convertible is very easy on the eyes.
Dodge Avenger: Hit: A well-built midsize sedan with a number of interesting features. But will consumers respond?
Still to come
Dodge 4500/5500 Chassis Cab: A big truck ready for commercial customers.
Dodge Caliber SRT4: A high-performance version of the compact Caliber.
Dodge Viper SRT10: A high-performance version of the high-performance Viper. Fun, but no savior.
Dodge Sprinter: A European styled work truck in the U.S.
Jeep Liberty: A redesigned top selling compact SUV / crossover.